Israel’s prime minister says the war in the Gaza Strip will soon enter a new phase.

“The intense phase of the war with Hamas is coming to an end,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a television interview on Sunday. “It does not mean that the war is over, but the intense phase of the war is coming to an end.”

But no matter how comforting those comments may be after more than half a year of horrific bloodshed, Netanyahu was quick to make two things clear: A ceasefire in Gaza is not in sight. And the next battle is likely to be in Lebanon, against the forces of Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas.

After withdrawing from Gaza, he said, “we will be able to move some of our forces to the north.”

Netanyahu did not announce an invasion of Lebanon, a move that would likely result in heavy losses for both Israel and Lebanon, but instead left room for a diplomatic solution with Hezbollah.

Any diplomatic solution to the Gaza issue remains uncertain, in part because Netanyahu’s coalition could collapse if Israel stops fighting in Gaza without ousting Hamas from power.

Netanyahu, however, appeared to suggest that Israel would not seek a major ground offensive against cities in central Gaza, the only area in the territory where the Israeli army has not launched such attacks, after completing its current military operation against Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah.

Although Israeli leadersSince January,they are transitioning to a less intense war, but the end of the Rafah operation may complete that process.

Netanyahu’s speech, as well as recent remarks by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, who was in Washington on Monday, suggest that the focus of Israeli political discussion and strategic planning is shifting to the northern border with Lebanon.

In a statement on Monday, Galante’s office said he discussed with US officials “Gaza’s transition to ‘Phase C’ and its implications for the region – including Lebanon and beyond.”

Early in the war, Galant outlined a three-phase operational plan that would include intensive air strikes on Hamas targets and infrastructure; a period of ground operations aimed at “eliminating pockets of resistance”; and a third phase, Phase C, which would “create a new security reality for Israeli citizens.”

Israel has been engaged in a low-level conflict with Hezbollah since October, displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border. But the battle has been overshadowed by the larger war in Gaza.

The shift in rhetoric on both sides over the weekend could herald a major escalation in relations between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israeli officials have warned for months that Israel could invade Lebanon if Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militia that controls southern Lebanon, does not withdraw its forces from near the border. Hezbollah has also threatened to invade Israel.

But a reduction in fighting in Gaza could also eventually create space for a de-escalation of hostilities on the Lebanese border. Hezbollah, which joined the fighting in October in support of Hamas, may phase out its operations if the Gaza war subsides, its leadership has said.

Here are four possible manifestations of a shift in Israel’s position on Gaza.

Once the Israeli operation in Rafah ends in the coming weeks, the military is expected to focus on hostage rescue operations in Gaza, as it did in early June.Rescue of four Israelisand killing dozens of Palestinians.

Military officials also said they would continue to carry out brief raids on neighborhoods captured in the early stages of the war to prevent Hamas militants from re-emerging in those areas.

Typical examples of such actions include Israel’s initial attack on Shifa Hospital in Gaza City in March this year, four months after theAnother attack on the hospitalAnother example is the first occupation in NovemberJabaliaand launched another three-week operation in May.

An Israeli withdrawal from most of Gaza without transferring power to another Palestinian leader could effectively allow Hamas leaders to retain rule over the devastated enclave, at least for now.

If the Israeli army regularly attacks Gaza, it could prevent Hamas from regaining its former strength — but it would prolong a power vacuum in which large tribes and gangs would compete with Hamas for influence. Such a vacuum would make it more difficult to rebuild Gaza, distribute aid and alleviate civilian suffering.

Israel is expected to continue to control Gaza’s border with Egypt, preventing weapons smuggling there. Israel is also expected to continue to occupy a strip of land that separates northern and southern Gaza, preventing free movement between the two areas.

By sending more troops to the northern border, the Israeli military will be better able to invade Lebanon and force Hezbollah militants away from Israeli territory.

But massing troops there could invite more rocket attacks from Hezbollah, increasing the chances of miscalculation and an all-out war. With Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warning last week that the group could invade Israel, the risk of escalation appears more pressing than at any time in months.

Meanwhile, Israel’s announcement of a new phase in Gaza could also provide conditions for easing tensions. A reduction in fighting in Gaza could give Hezbollah a way out. In February, Nasrallah said his group would stop firing “when the shooting stops in Gaza.”

A period of relative calm on the Lebanese border could also encourage Israelis who left to return home. This in turn would reduce pressure on the Israeli government to take tougher action against Hezbollah. One of the main reasons Israeli leaders considered invading Lebanon was to create conditions that would convince Israelis who left their homes to return.

By announcing a withdrawal from Gaza, Netanyahu reduced one source of friction with President Biden, but other frictions remain.

Biden has criticized Israel’s conduct in the war, even as his administration continues to provide Israel with funding and weapons. A less destructive Gaza war would reduce arguments with Washington over Israel’s military strategy.

But Netanyahu’s refusal to offer a clear plan for post-war governance in Gaza, and the possibility of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon, remain, leave ample opportunity for disagreements to arise between him and Washington.

The Biden administration wants to end fighting with Hezbollah, and the United States has for months urged Netanyahu to empower an alternative Palestinian leadership in Gaza. But Netanyahu has been coy about Gaza’s future as his right-wing coalition partners pressure him to seize the territory and resettle Israelis in it.