(Bloomberg): The S&P 500 index rose for the first time in four trading days on Thursday, buoyed by buying in big technology stocks, with Nvidia rising nearly 7%.
The Nasdaq 100 Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, rose 1.2%. Nvidia led the rise of the Magnificent Seven, a group of seven major technology companies. The company had been in a technical correction phase after three consecutive days of declines, wiping out $430 billion in market capitalization.
Among other individual stocks, Carnival Corp., which announced a bullish earnings outlook, surged 8.7%. In after-hours trading after the close of regular trading, FedEx Corp. also rose after announcing a bullish outlook in its earnings report released after the market closed.
The U.S. consumer confidence index for June, released on the same day, fell. Outlooks for business conditions, employment and income worsened. Federal Reserve Board member Bowman said he sees some upside risks to the inflation outlook and reiterated his view that interest rates will need to remain high for some time. Fed Board member Cook said it would be appropriate to cut interest rates “at some point.” He also forecast that inflation will improve gradually this year before slowing more sharply in 2025.
“We don’t think the current bull market will be halted unless we either enter a recession or the Fed changes interest rate policy from anticipated cuts to actual rate hikes,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance. “We expect volatility from here through the end of the year, but the bull market won’t end unless something changes in the economy or the Fed’s stance.”
Societe Generale strategists including Manish Kabra said investors would likely continue to pour money in if U.S. stocks showed signs of a pullback as a U.S. rate cut looms. The S&P 500 remains in “buy-the-dip mode” after gaining about 15% this year, he said, and the next rally will come around the time of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle, which the bank sees as likely to start as early as 2025.
Bank of America Corp. said its clients sold U.S. stocks for the first time in a month last week, led by hedge funds and institutional investors, as retail investors bought more shares.
BofA’s quantitative strategists, led by Jill Carey Hall, said in a client note on Tuesday that net outflows by clients of the bank rose to $1.6 billion in the week ended June 21. By sector, technology and communication services led inflows, while financials saw the largest outflows.
Treasury yields were little changed after today’s $69 billion two-year note auction went well. The $70 billion five-year note auction scheduled for the 26th should provide further clues about underlying demand for Treasury at these yields, as well as the $44 billion seven-year note auction scheduled for the 27th.
The highest winning bid in the two-year note auction was 4.706 percent, in line with pre-auction trading levels. The highest winning bid in the same year auction last month was 4.917 percent.
U.S. Treasury yields rebounded from intraday lows in the morning as Canadian bond yields rose after inflation unexpectedly accelerated in that country. The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for May, due on the 28th, is expected to show a slowdown in growth.
“The two-year note auction went pretty well,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading strategy at AmeriVet Securities in New York. U.S. inflation data due this week “is expected to be favorable for the market, so auctions over the next few days should be fine.”
With further auctions scheduled in the coming days, “we expect rates to get more favorable, followed by a move to prepare for U.S. inflation data on the 28th,” said Evelyn Gomez-Lichti, a strategist at Mizuho International.
The yen was almost unchanged against the dollar from the previous day, trading at around the upper 159 yen range per dollar during New York time.
A decision by Japanese authorities to intervene in the currency market now depends on two variables: the speed and absolute level of the yen’s depreciation, Citigroup said in a report, adding that there are “almost infinite possibilities as to the timing and level” of intervention.
The next intervention is likely to come at around 165 yen to the dollar, analysts including Osamu Takashima wrote. If the yen weakens rapidly, authorities could intervene at around 162 yen, but they could hold off on intervention altogether if the dollar-yen exchange rate rises above 160 yen “over the course of two to three weeks,” they said.
The dollar rose, driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields. The decline in the Norwegian krone, offshore yuan, and Mexican peso with the end of the month approaching was also a factor. The Canadian dollar fluctuated wildly after an unexpected acceleration in inflation in the country, but was almost flat compared to the previous day.
New York crude oil futures prices fell. Although there was awareness of rising geopolitical risks, selling prevailed on the day due to the rise in the dollar and technical factors.
Brent crude futures have been approaching overbought territory recently, hitting their highest level since late April the previous day.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase on Wednesday maintained their previous forecast for Brent crude oil to average $84 a barrel in the third quarter, but now see it reaching $90 in August or September, citing “expectations that global demand will outstrip supply.”
Macquarie analysts also see strong demand and have raised their Brent crude forecast for the third quarter to $86 from $83.
The August WTI futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $80.83 a barrel, down 80 cents (1%) from the previous day. The August Brent contract on the London ICE closed at $85.01, down $1 (1.2%).
Gold also fell, with selling prevailing after Fed Governor Bowman’s comments as traders focused on economic data later this week for clues as to the likelihood of a rate cut in the U.S.
August gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) fell $13.60 (0.6%) from the previous day to close at $2,330.80.
Tech Lifts US Stocks as FedEx Surges in Late Hours: Markets Wrap (excerpt)
Treasuries Pare Declines After Auction Gets Expected Result (Excerpt)
Dollar Rises Broadly, Loonie Shaken by Faster CPI: Inside G-10 (excerpt)
Oil Dips After Touching Eight-Week High as Dollar Strengthens (Excerpt)
Gold and Copper Edge Lower as Traders Look to Inflation Data (Excerpt)
–Reporting assistance from Vildana Hajric, Alexander Nicholson, Jeran Wittenstein, Ryan Vlastelica, Aya Wagatsuma, and Jason Scott.
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Source: Japanese