Turkish President Erdogan wants to lift his country into the top league of world politics. A Turkey that is in NATO, is one of the EU accession candidates, belongs to the BRICS group of emerging countries led by China and Russia and exerts its influence in all these forums – that is Erdogan’s vision. It is legitimate for the President to want to achieve as much as possible for his country internationally. But his plan is unrealistic.

Erdogan is capitalizing on Turkey’s geopolitical importance at the interface between the Middle East, Asia and Europe. He is working with Russia in Syria, with Europe on refugee policy and with China on the production of electric cars. So far, this has worked well. Turkey supplies weapons to Ukraine and purchases gas from Russia without Kiev or Moscow withdrawing from the cooperation.

Expectations are unrealistic

The catch is that Erdogan expects Turkey to be indispensable for all international players. He is wrong. When the president fell out with Egypt, Greece, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in recent years, they managed to get by without Turkey. Some of them even formed regional alliances against Ankara. That has now changed – but not because the other states have realized how important Turkey is, but because Erdogan has realized how much Turkey needs the others.

The same applies to relations between Turkey and Europe. Erdogan is disappointed with the EU and likes to complain about the West, which he believes is on the decline. But for the time being, he needs Europe and the USA. The planned accession to BRICS will not change that.