The US presidential election was a close one, and it has become clear that both the Harris and Trump camps were working behind the scenes to secure the one elector who could decide the outcome.

Nebraska also becomes a “winner-takes-all” state… Trump campaign plans to do so

In the US presidential election, a total of 538 electors are chosen by popular vote, allocated in proportion to the population of the 50 states and the capital, Washington, D.C., and these electors ultimately determine the winner. . All electors are taken by the candidate who wins the popular vote in each state, but only the Midwest states of Nebraska and the eastern states of Maine allocate electors in proportion to the popular vote.

In the case of Nebraska, five electors are allotted to the entire state, but one elector goes to the winner of the second district, which includes Omaha, the state’s largest city, and four electors go to the other statewide winners. given. In the previous presidential election in 2020, Joe Biden won the 2nd Congressional District and gained one elector, while then-President Donald Trump won four electors.

Images for this article (4)

Mr. Biden won the final election in which electors from all over the country cast their votes, but with the prospect that the 2024 election will be a close one, the Trump campaign is planning to obtain this one candidate in a “winner-takes-all” manner. In order to do so, he has strongly lobbied the Nebraska Republican Party to amend state law.

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a prominent Republican and friend of former President Trump, visited Nebraska to lobby.

As a result, at one point it was possible to obtain the two-thirds approval of Nebraska’s state legislators needed to change the state law, but at the last moment, Republican Mike McDonnell of the state Senate changed his mind and amended the law. The state’s governor, Jim Pillen (Republican), announced on the 24th that he would give up on amending the law.

Harris campaign promises “support in mayoral election”

McDonnell was originally a Democrat, but switched to the Republican Party in April 2024 due to disagreements over the abortion issue. The Democratic Party, which knows the lawmaker well, appears to have persuaded him by presenting conditions that the lawmaker could not refuse.

According to an article on the NBC News website published on the 27th, which reported the story behind the incident, Nebraska Democratic Party Chairwoman Jane Cleave said that if McDonnell opposes the law reform, the Democratic Party will be in the Omaha mayor’s race, which McDonnell hopes to win. He promised to provide more than enough support.

In Omaha, incumbent Mayor Jean Stothert (Republican) has announced her candidacy for a fourth term, and McDonnell, who has switched to the Republican Party, is unable to receive party recognition. However, if the Democratic Party fully supports the lawmaker and can fight alongside Vice President Kamala Harris, it can be calculated to be extremely advantageous.

Should a “Republican President” be avoided as a “Democratic Vice President”?

In the end, the system for appointing Nebraska’s electors remained unchanged, but the New York Times conducted a poll in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. As a result, Vice President Harris has 52% of votes and former President Trump has 43%, making it certain that the vice president will secure one electoral vote. An article published in the newspaper’s electronic version on the 28th explains the meaning as follows.

“In the current election climate, Harris winning one elector in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District would also determine the winner of the presidential election.”

The 2024 presidential election will depend on the fate of seven so-called “swing states,” and various opinion polls have shown that former President Trump will win four states, including Georgia in the south-central part of the seven states. Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have an advantage in Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania.

Looking at this in terms of the total number of electors, Vice President Harris has 270 votes to former President Trump’s 268 votes, giving the vice president the victory, but this is because Nebraska used the traditional method and gave former President Trump 4 electors and Vice President Harris It was calculated on the premise that one person would be given to the president.

If Nebraska were to be awarded five electoral votes to Mr. Trump in a winner-take-all system, but not to Vice President Harris, the total number of electoral votes for both sides would be 269. In this case, the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution requires that each state representative cast one vote in the U.S. House of Representatives to decide the president, and in the Senate, each state representative casts one vote to decide the vice president.

Currently, in the U.S. Congress, there are 26 states with a Republican majority and 22 states with a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, with former President Trump expected to be elected in the same number of states. On the other hand, in the Senate, there are 49 Republicans and 48 Democrats, but there are also three independents, two of whom vote with Democrats, so the vice president will be Democrat Tim Walz. It will be.

One mistake could have resulted in a Republican president becoming a Democratic vice president, and this event could be said to symbolize the tense situation surrounding the 2024 presidential election.
[Written by journalist Taro Kimura]
[Cover design/illustration: Hisashi Saito]