Left: Polls show that Sunak’s Conservative Party will suffer a crushing defeat in next month’s general election. Right: Starmer’s Labour Party is expected to become the ruling party. \AFP

According to comprehensive reports, the British general election will be held on July 4. Three polls released on the 15th local time showed that the Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Sunak is facing a grim election situation. The party currently holds more than 300 seats in the House of Commons, which will be greatly reduced to only 72 seats. A polling expert warned that the Conservative Party will suffer a “catastrophic disaster” in this election.

The poll comes in the middle of the campaign, a week after the Conservatives and Labour launched their campaign parties and shortly before voters start receiving their postal ballots. Sunak shocked the political world and Conservatives by announcing a snap election on May 22. He was expected to wait until later in the year to allow people to recover from a crisis in living standards, with inflation at its highest in 40 years.

The Labor Party leads by 25%, the largest advantage in recent years

The Survation poll published by The Sunday Times predicts that the Conservatives may only win 72 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, the fewest seats in the Conservative Party’s nearly 200-year history. The Labour Party will win 456 seats. The poll was conducted from May 31 to June 13. In terms of percentage, the Survation poll showed that the Labour Party’s support rate was 40%, the Conservatives’ was 24%, and the British Reform Party led by former Brexit activist Farage’s support rate was 12%.

Another poll conducted by Savanta for The Daily Telegraph found that Labour’s support rate of 46% was up 2 percentage points from the poll five days ago. At the same time, the Conservative Party’s support fell to 21%, down 4 percentage points from the previous poll.

Analysts pointed out that the Labour Party’s support rate is 25% ahead of the Conservative Party, which is the largest lead of the Labour Party since Truss, the “shortest-lived prime minister” in the UK, took office in 2022. Truss’s tax cut plan at the time prompted investors to sell British government bonds, pushing up interest rates and forcing the Bank of England to intervene. “Our survey shows that this election is tanta’s disaster for the Conservative Party,” said Hopkins, director of political research at Savanta. The poll was held between June 12 and 14. Hopkins believes that with half of the election campaign time over, the chances of Conservative candidates are getting slimmer, and the real election situation may be bleaker than the polls.

The third poll, conducted by Opinium for the Sunday Observer between June 12 and 14, put Labour on 40 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform on 14 per cent. Opinium said the two main parties were set to see their lowest share of the vote since 1945, with voters turning to other parties such as the Reform Party and the Liberal Democrats. It found smaller parties had made gains during the campaign. This was a reversal from 2019, when more voters chose the main parties as the campaign progressed.

Young voters make up 15% and should not be underestimated

The Conservatives have been in power in the U.K. since 2010, and for young voters who will vote next month, they have lived under Conservative governments for most of their lives. Generation Z voters (people born after 1997) only made up 9% of the electorate in the 2019 general election. But this year, they will make up about 15%, according to the National Center for Social Research, making them a force to be reckoned with.

Kevin Patel, 26, a graduate student in London, has been hit by the soaring rent prices and currently lives with his parents. He doesn’t know how long he will have to wait before he can actually afford his own home. Rent prices have been rising over the past few years, mainly due to a shortage of housing and landlords passing on the pressure of rising energy prices and higher loan interest rates to tenants. Data from British authorities last year showed that tenants and young people were the groups most affected by the cost of living crisis.

Patel, a traditional Labour voter, said he would likely vote Labour again because it had a “better plan” to deal with the rent crisis. But he remained concerned that neither major party would address the problems. Asked how he felt about his vote, he said: “Cynical, but with a tinge of hope”.