In the battle of global narratives, China has sought to portray itself as a peaceful country opposed to dividing the world into hostile camps. In contrast, it accuses the United States of forming factions and pushing the world into a new Cold War.

However, Russia and North Korea have concludedMutual Defense TreatyRequireThe two countries would immediately provide military assistance to each other in the event of war, which is exactly what China accuses the United States of ganging up on. China’s closest strategic partners and only treaty allies – Russia and North Korea – are now the two countries that increase the risk of a Cold War-style confrontation in Northeast Asia.

The treaty also creates more trouble for Beijing because it appears to reinforce the impression of a trilateral axis between China, Russia and North Korea, something Beijing has been trying to avoid. “Beijing has been very careful to avoid the image of a China-Russia-North Korea axis,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “It wants to keep its options open.”

Japan, South Korea, and the United States may now decideThe threat posed by Russia and North Korea’s defense treaty has led them to increase their troops or strengthen their defense capabilities in areas surrounding China, reinforcing the trilateral alliance announced at Camp David last year.Security Arrangements.

For those reasons, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, may not be happy about the budding bromance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who, when they met in Pyongyang on Wednesday, framed the defense agreement as the beginning of a new era in relations between the two countries.

Analysts believe the agreement also exposes the limitations of China’s partnership with the two countries.

Xi declared an “endless” relationship with Putin and pledged “unwavering” support for North Korea — uniting two like-minded authoritarian states to push back against what they see as American bullying around the world.

But by aligning himself with two countries that are isolated from the international community, Xi also risks facing consequences from the unpredictable actions of their leaders. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine severely damaged China’s relations with the West, which accuses Beijing of not doing enough to rein in Russia. And Kim Jong-un’s nuclear threats have prompted two tense neighbors, Japan and South Korea, to form a trilateral defense partnership with the United States.

Xi, who needs to turn around China’s economic woes, can ill afford any more surprises. Even as he becomes increasingly hostile toward the West, he remains committed to preserving China’s place in the current global economic order.

“The new agreement between Putin and Kim Jong-un is not good news for Beijing,” said John Delury, a professor of China studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “Xi Jinping has always had a difficult relationship with the wayward North Korean dynasty, and there is growing reason to worry that Putin will encourage Kim Jong-un’s aggressive tendencies.”

Lulehan said the war in Ukraine, coupled with the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula, “makes Putin and Kim Jong-un destabilizing factors at a time when China needs a stable environment.”

China has sought to distance itself from the new deal, with a Foreign Ministry spokesman declining to comment on Thursday, saying it was an issue for Russia and North Korea.

Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said that in fact, from China’s perspective, the Russia-North Korea treaty plus the US-Japan-South Korea alliance have “greatly increased the risk of confrontation, competition or conflict” in the region.

Shi Yinhong said that peace on the Korean Peninsula is one of China’s top priorities and the increasing militarization of the region threatens “one of China’s core interests.”

China still holds considerable leverage over Russia and North Korea. The United States believes the Kremlin cannot sustain its war in Ukraine without China buying large quantities of Russian oil or supplying Russia with consumer goods and dual-use technology such as chips and machine tools to power its war machine. North Korea, meanwhile, relies on China for nearly all of its trade, including food and energy.

This leverage over Moscow and Pyongyang has increased Beijing’s importance. Other countries have called on China to use its influence to curb North Korea’s nuclear buildup or Russia’s war in Ukraine.This appeal was unsuccessful..

Yet Putin’s courting of Kim has given Beijing a new rival for influence over North Korea, creating “a windfall for Kim and a headache for Xi,” said Danny Russell, a diplomacy and security analyst at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“Importantly for Pyongyang, the partnership with Putin — while not endless — generates valuable leverage against Beijing,” Russell said. “Provoking great power confrontations is a classic North Korean playbook, and heavy reliance on China has been a weakness that Kim Jong-un has been eager to address in recent decades.”

“North Korea is by far the biggest beneficiary and China is likely to be the biggest loser,” he added.

Maintaining Kim Jong-un’s regime is a top priority for Beijing in order to maintain a buffer zone between the Chinese border and U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.

Chinese and North Korean officials describe their relationship as “inseparable,” but relations between the two neighbors have long been fraught with conflict, with mutual distrust and common interests.

Since taking power in 2011, Kim has rapidly increased missile testing and expanded North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, which has unnerved China. Xi Jinping initially refused to meet with Kim. It was not until President Trump announced plans to meet with the North Korean dictator that Xi Jinping changed his tune and eventually met with Kim several times in 2018, around the time of Kim’s summit with Trump.

Russia and North Korea’s increasingly close relationship could give China more incentive to work to repair and stabilize its relationship with South Korea.

On the same day that Putin and Kim met in Pyongyang, Chinese diplomats and military officials met with their South Korean counterparts in Seoul as China seeks to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul to weaken South Korea’s military alliance with the United States.

Beijing said at the meeting that the top priority on the Korean Peninsula was to cool down the situation and avoid an escalation of confrontation — language so vague that it could be interpreted as a criticism of the United States or the Russian-North Korean agreement, Chinese state media reported on Wednesday. Despite its alliance with North Korea, Beijing has sought to portray itself as a neutral player in the dispute, saying it always “determines its position based on the merits of the matter itself.”