The supply and demand forecast for new rice (produced in 2024) announced by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries on the 30th shows that production will increase by 220,000 tons from the previous year to 6.83 million tons, exceeding the demand for the year ending June 2025 of 6.74 million tons. . Private sector inventories are also expected to recover. Compared to the 2023 production, which suffered damage from high temperatures, the distribution volume has stabilized, and concerns about the nationwide shortage that occurred this summer are likely to ease. However, store prices are likely to remain high, reflecting increases in production costs such as utility and fertilizer costs.
In light of the sluggish production in 2013, cultivation for staple food has increased in each production region. The ratio of first-class rice, which determines distribution volume, was 77.3% as of the end of September, a significant improvement from 59.6% in the same period for 2023. However, competition to collect cargo is fierce, and some say that store prices are unlikely to come down.
On the demand side, there has been a temporary increase in demand recently due to slower price increases compared to noodles and bread and a surge in inbound tourists, but the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries believes that the long-term downward trend will remain unchanged.
Source: Japanese