Refer Report

South Korean and U.S. diplomatic and defense authorities assessed that there is a possibility that North Korea will engage in major provocations, such as a seventh nuclear test or an ICBM launch, around the U.S. presidential election in November, and discussed response measures.

At a joint press conference following the 5th South Korea-U.S. Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultative Group (EDSCG) high-level meeting held at the State Department in Washington on the 4th (local time), First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Hong-kyun mentioned North Korea’s advancement of nuclear and missile capabilities, GPS (Global Positioning System) jamming, and dropping of garbage balloons, and said, “In this situation, our two countries’ assessment is that we cannot completely rule out the possibility that North Korea will carry out a major provocation before or after the U.S. presidential election.”

Vice Minister Kim continued, “We discussed various possible provocations and responses (by North Korea),” and said that this was the first time that discussions were held based on scenarios for each North Korean nuclear threat.

On this day, the EDSCG high-level meeting was attended by Vice Minister Kim and Director of the Defense Policy Office of the Ministry of National Defense Cho Chang-rae from the Korean side, and by Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Bonnie Jenkins and Acting Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Kara Abercrombie from the U.S. side.

Regarding the scenario-based discussion, when asked whether the U.S. had confirmed the principle of responding with nuclear weapons in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack, Vice Minister Kim said, “I cannot disclose specific response measures in detail as they are matters of diplomacy, security, and military strategy,” and added, “What is clear is that if North Korea uses nuclear weapons, it will face an immediate and overwhelmingly decisive response, and there is no scenario in which (North Korea) can survive the use of nuclear weapons; this is the firm position of both countries.” Director Cho also said, “Through its extended deterrence commitment, the U.S. has expressed its will to respond with all available assets, including U.S. nuclear assets, in the event of any nuclear attack by North Korea.”

Acting Deputy Secretary Abercrombie said in this regard, “While the nature of today’s discussions is classified, the United States has made clear through the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review and other efforts that our nuclear weapons are intended to protect and deter not only ourselves from nuclear and strategic attack, but also our allies and partners.” He added, “Any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or our allies and partners would be unacceptable and would result in the end of the regime.”

When asked whether efforts to strengthen extended deterrence would continue regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, he said, “Just as the EDSCG was created by the previous administration and has continued until now, I fully expect that the new ROK-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) will continue under the next U.S. administration,” adding, “Such a mechanism is required for coordination between allies.”

Regarding the argument that South Korea and the US should consider redeploying tactical nuclear weapons or arming South Korea with nuclear weapons in response to the North Korean nuclear threat, they dismissed it, saying, “Strengthening extended deterrence is the best solution.” Undersecretary Jenkins said, “The US is committed to strengthening deterrence, and our commitment is ironclad. We take extended deterrence against South Korea very seriously,” and added, “South Korea can rely on us.”

Acting Deputy Secretary Abercrombie also said, “The United States has unwavering confidence in our nuclear deterrence, and South Korea also reaffirmed its confidence in the United States’ extended deterrence and its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in the Washington Declaration.” He added, “The United States will continue to work closely with our allies and partners to deter nuclear conflict in the region and to ensure that we maintain an effective combination of capabilities, concepts, deployments, training, and precision deterrence options.”

Vice Minister Kim also stated, “Nuclear armament, including the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons, is not the position of the South Korean government.”

Source: Korean