Figure: Latest support rates for the top candidates for the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party president

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently announced his resignation, and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will vote on September 27 to elect a new president. Former Japanese Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has failed in four attempts to challenge for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party, announced on the 24th that he would run for the position again, calling it his “last battle” in his 38 years in politics. Analysts pointed out that the threshold for running for the presidency of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party is low, and now there is a chaotic situation with at least 10 candidates challenging. The latest poll shows that among the 11 possible candidates, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi ranks first with 23% support.

[Ta Kung Pao News]To participate in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, you must obtain the support of at least 20 members of parliament within the party. The election is decided by 734 votes, including 367 votes from members of parliament, and an equal number of votes from party members and allies. Since the Liberal Democratic Party currently holds a majority of seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives, its president is usually nominated as prime minister in the prime minister nomination election in parliament. Being elected president means that he will become the next prime minister.

Shigeru Ishiba, 67, held a press conference at a shrine in his hometown of Tottori Prefecture on the morning of the 24th, announcing that he would participate in the LDP presidential election on the 27th of next month. This is the fifth time that Shigeru Ishiba has participated in the presidential election in his personal political career. He said: “As the culmination of my 38-year political career and the last battle, I will go all out to win support.” He also said that in view of the “black money” scandals that were exposed in many factions of the LDP, he will do his best to “build a LDP that abides by the rules.”

Shigeru Ishiba is considered an “outlier”

Kyodo News pointed out that Ishiba Shigeru is at the top of the polls and is well-known, but his foundation within the party is weak, and increasing the “parliamentary votes” has become a problem. Ishiba Shigeru once won the highest number of “party member votes” in the 2012 presidential election, but lost to Shinzo Abe in the runoff vote with only “parliamentary votes”. Ishiba Shigeru has held several important positions in the cabinet, including Minister of Defense, Agriculture and Regional Revitalization, but he is regarded as an “outlier” in the party because he opposes the top leaders. He also publicly criticized the Liberal Democratic Party, saying that the most common thing in the political whirlpool of the Liberal Democratic Party is “shooting in the back.”

On the 19th, former Japanese Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi announced his candidacy for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September, becoming the first candidate to hold a press conference. Japanese media reported that more than 10 Liberal Democratic Party members are interested in running, setting a record high. Japanese media predict that many popular candidates, including Shinjiro Koizumi, Taro Kono, Minister of Digital Affairs, and current Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, will officially announce their candidacy in the next few days.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo conducted an emergency opinion poll on August 21 and 22. When asked who would be the right candidate for the LDP president, Shinjiro Koizumi ranked first with 23% support. The second place went to former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, with 18% support, a change of positions compared to the July opinion poll. Following closely behind was Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, with 11% support.

Among the LDP supporters, Koizumi’s approval rating is also high, ranking first with 32%, followed by Sanae Takaichi (15%) and Shigeru Ishiba (14%). Analysts pointed out that although the poll results will not directly affect the LDP presidential election, because the next prime minister will soon face a general election, it will affect the tendency of lawmakers to vote for a new party leader.

First election after the faction disbanded

The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party has long been divided into many factions. At the end of 2023, members of parliament from various factions were successively exposed to political donation scandals. In order to resolve the political crisis caused by this, in January 2024, led by the Hiroikekai to which Prime Minister Fumio Kishida belonged, various factions announced their dissolution.

Japanese media pointed out that this LDP election may see a 10-person melee, partly because the constraints and coordination have weakened after the dissolution of the various factions, resulting in a lower threshold for participation. At the same time, in previous LDP presidential elections, the outside world could predict the final result based on the faction support tendencies, but in this melee, it is probably difficult to predict who will be elected.

In addition, during Kishida’s administration, the LDP was plagued by scandals, which led to a crisis of confidence among the Japanese people. Currently, all parties are still testing each other to see who is suitable to be the “representative figure” of the LDP. But whoever is the final winner will face challenges such as reshaping the image of the LDP and solving Japan’s severe economic and diplomatic problems.

(Comprehensive report)