After the Iranian missile attack on his country, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced retaliation. “Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” said Netanyahu, according to his office. It initially remained unclear when a retaliatory strike on Iran might take place. On Wednesday night, Israel attacked the Lebanese capital Beirut again in the fight against the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia. Iran itself warned Israel of a retaliatory strike and threatened a further violent reaction. In view of the escalating situation in the Middle East, the UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for an emergency meeting today (4:00 p.m. CEST).

Iran attacked Israel with around 180 rockets on Tuesday. Most were intercepted by Israel and a U.S.-led defense coalition, according to the Israeli military. There was one fatality in the West Bank and two injured in Tel Aviv. Impacts were recorded in the center and south of Israel. According to media reports, Iran targeted two Israeli air force bases and the headquarters of the Israeli secret service Mossad. Millions of Israelis sought refuge in shelters. It was Iran’s second attack on Israel this year after April.

How does Israel react?

Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said Iran had committed “a serious act” that was pushing the Middle East toward escalation. «We will act at the time and place we determine, in accordance with the instructions of the political level. These events will have consequences.” He did not say exactly what a retaliatory strike might look like.

The New York Times reported, citing US officials, that in a possible scenario Israel could attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. In particular, the enrichment facilities in Natanz, the heart of the Iranian program, could be targeted.

Hagari announced further attacks. “The Air Force is still fully operational and will continue to strike with full force in the Middle East this evening, just as it did last year,” he said on Wednesday night. The Iranian missile attacks would have no impact on the operational capability of the air force. Netanyahu called Iran’s attack a failure.

The army announced early on Wednesday morning that “terrorist targets in Beirut” were being attacked. The military initially did not provide any details. At least five Israeli attacks were carried out in the southern suburbs of Beirut, media reported, citing a Lebanese security source.

And what is Iran doing?

Iran threatened Israel if it launched a retaliatory strike. “In this case, our response will be stronger and more forceful,” wrote Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Platform X. “Our action is complete unless the Israeli regime decides to call for further retaliation.”

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said the attack was in retaliation for the killing of Hamas foreign chief Ismail Haniya, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian general, state television said. Thousands of people celebrated the rocket attack on Israel in Iran.

How do experts assess the situation?

Grant Rumley, a former Pentagon official, told the New York Times that unlike the April attack, in which Israel had days of warning and was able to coordinate its defense with allies in the region, Tuesday’s attack took just a few hours announced in advance. “It is therefore difficult to view this new attack as purely symbolic,” Rumley said. “It definitely looks like an escalation by Iran.”

According to experts, the reins of action now lie with Israel. Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, a research institute in Beirut, told the Wall Street Journal that Iran’s attack gives Israel reason to strike back directly into Iranian territory, which could trigger a regional war.

Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official and now at the think tank Trends Research and Advisory, assesses the situation similarly. He said: “The possibility of further escalation of this regional conflict has more to do with what Israel wants and less to do with what Iran does.” He added: “Israel sees here a unique opportunity to harm all its opponents and possibly deal a fatal blow.”

How is the international community reacting?

US President Joe Biden is calling for careful consideration of the response to the Iranian missile attack. When asked how Israel should respond to Iran, Biden responded at the White House in Washington: “That is an ongoing discussion at the moment. We need to look closely at all the data. We are in constant contact with the Israeli government and our partners, and that remains to be seen.” As things currently stand, the attack appears to have been repelled and ineffective. The USA is fully behind Israel. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called the Iranian missile attack a “despicable act of aggression.” “We call on Iran to stop all further attacks, including from its proxy terrorist groups,” he said.

Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) condemned the attack on Platform X “in the strongest possible terms”. She further wrote: “We have warned Iran strongly about this dangerous escalation.” The EU also condemned the attack. “The dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliation threatens to get out of control,” said Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell on X.

The Élysée Palace announced after a meeting of the Defense and Security Council that the French government had mobilized its military assets in the Middle East to counter the Iranian threat. According to Britain’s Defense Secretary John Healey, the British military took part in attempts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East in the evening.

Why is the situation continuing to escalate?

In April, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) carried out a direct attack on Israel for the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic. The IRGC air force fired more than 300 drones, missiles and cruise missiles at its arch enemy – in response to the killing of generals in a suspected Israeli attack in Syria. The attack was successfully repelled.

Israel’s military and secret services had recently significantly weakened Iran’s allies in the region. At the end of July, the foreign chief of the Islamist Hamas was killed in Tehran. Iran’s leadership then vowed revenge. On Friday, Hezbollah chief Nasrallah, a key ally of Tehran, was killed. Previously, exploding pagers had injured hundreds of Hezbollah officials and killed several. Since then, it has been unclear whether and how Iran’s military leadership would respond.

On Tuesday, the Israeli military took another step: Israeli ground troops entered Lebanon again for the first time in almost two decades. Around a year after the start of the Gaza war, the focus of the fighting shifted towards the neighboring country to the north.

Since the 1979 revolution, the USA and Israel have been considered archenemies of the Islamic Republic. With the outbreak of the Gaza war almost a year ago, there were multiple threats that the shadow conflict would develop into a conflagration. Iran does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and seeks to eliminate it. He has for years supported paramilitary organizations that oppose Israel as part of his axis of resistance. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are the country’s elite armed forces and are considered significantly more powerful than the regular army.