The Association has already
Declares “No replacement of coach Moriyasu”

Since its first appearance in 1992, Japan has won the Asian Cup four times out of the nine tournaments up to 2024. This is the most wins among all participating countries. Therefore, the result of reaching the quarterfinals of this tournament cannot be said to be in line with the expectations and goals of the Japanese national team, which aims to win the World Cup.

However, after the tournament, Japan Football Association president Kozo Tashima declared that “there will be no replacement of coach Moriyasu.” So when is the right time to consider changing coaches?

In my opinion, the standard for when it’s over is that “when a manager starts to maintain his peak, it’s over.”

Let’s look at the history of Japanese soccer. It is believed that the weaknesses of Japanese society are also contained within it.

Correlation between the Asian Cup and the World Cup

Usually, the World Cup comes about two or three years after the Asian Cup. The latter is the “real thing.” And in Japan since 2000, there has only been one relationship between these two tournaments.

“No team that has made it to the round of 16 in the World Cup (and not been eliminated in the group stage) has won the previous Asian Cup.”That’s the law.

2007 Asian Cup
→ Lost to Saudi Arabia in the quarterfinals → Reached quarterfinals in the 2010 South Africa World Cup

2015 Asian Cup
→ Lost to UAE in the round of 16 → Round of 16 in the 2018 Russia World Cup

2019 Asian Cup
→ Lost to Qatar in the final → Made it to the top 16 in the 2022 Qatar World Cup

That is to say, it can also be rephrased like this.

“The tournament in which we were eliminated in the group stage at the World Cup was the tournament before that, where we won the Asian Cup.”

2004 Asian Cup winner
→ Eliminated in the group stage at the 2006 Germany World Cup

2011 Asian Cup Winner
→Finals: Eliminated in the group stage at the 2014 Brazil World Cup

The only exception was the 2002 Japan-Korea World Cup (round of 16, won the 2000 Asian Cup). However, it goes without saying that in the world of soccer, “hosting a tournament in one’s own country” is a special circumstance.

This also applies to the 1990s, when Japan struggled to qualify for its first World Cup. After winning the Asian Cup in 1992, the “Doha Tragedy” occurred in the Asian qualifiers for the 1994 World Cup in the United States. Conversely, after losing to a dark horse, Kuwait, in the 1996 Asian Cup, Japan won the qualifiers for the 1998 World Cup in France the following year, making their first appearance.