Refer Report

Iran’s missile attack on Israel on the 1st is expected to have an impact on Israel’s ground war against Lebanon.

On this day, just hours after Israel announced that it had launched a “limited, localized, targeted attack” against southern Lebanon, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel. Iran declared that the attack on Israel was retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, but the timing of the attack also suggests that the purpose was to hinder Israel’s attack on Hezbollah.

On the morning of the 2nd, the day after the Iranian missile attack, Hezbollah claimed that it had confronted and repelled the Israeli forces that had infiltrated Odaise in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah said in a post on Telegram, “We clashed with (Israeli soldiers), inflicted damage on them, and were repelled.” Even before Iran’s attack on Israel, Hezbollah claimed that, contrary to the Israeli army’s claims, the Israeli army had not invaded southern Lebanon.

After Israel announced a ground war in southern Lebanon, there are no clear fighting trends yet. In this situation, Iran’s attack on Israel occurred, putting Israel in a difficult situation in the ground war in southern Lebanon. It would be too burdensome for Israel to wage a full-scale ground war in Lebanon and prepare for a retaliatory attack against Iran at the same time. It has become more difficult for the residents of northern Israel, bordering southern Lebanon, to safely return, which Israel has used for the purpose of its war against Hezbollah.

Israel judged that it had dealt a major blow to Hezbollah’s leadership by killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and others in an airstrike south of Beirut, the Lebanese capital, on the 27th of last month. It seems.

Of course, even if Iran had not attacked Israel, there are many predictions that an invasion of Lebanon would pose a risk to Israel.

Israel is currently deploying 12,000 to 14,000 soldiers, including the 7th Armored Brigade and 98th Airborne Division, and reserve forces belonging to the Northern Command, to the Lebanon front. The soldiers of this unit were deployed after fighting in the Gaza Strip in Palestine for the past year. Although they have extensive combat experience, they are exhausted from a year of fighting and are facing an enemy with greater capabilities than the Palestinian armed faction Hamas.

The Israeli military leadership is also not hiding its tension in the battle against Hezbollah, considering the failure in the 2006 Lebanon War. Herzy Halevi, Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, emphasized this when inspecting the combat readiness of soldiers of the 7th Armored Brigade last week. He emphasized, “When meeting Hezbollah members, we must show high professional capabilities and combat power,” and “We must go stronger than them, destroy the enemy, and, crucially, destroy their facilities.”

Compared to the 2006 Lebanon War, in which more than 100 Israeli soldiers were killed, the number of Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon is known to have increased from 5,000 to tens of thousands. Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit has about 3,000 members, who are “trained in southern Lebanon and know the terrain and roads like the back of their hands,” said Alex Gakopoulos, military editor for Al Jazeera.

Soldiers of the Radwan unit have extensive combat experience as they participated in the Syrian civil war. In addition, Hezbollah has dug numerous tunnels in southern Lebanon and is good at using them for ambushes and surprise attacks. Al Jazeera pointed out that Hezbollah also uses drones to monitor the movements of Israeli troops better than during the 2006 war. If the Israeli army invades southern Lebanon, Hezbollah will have the ability to fight in the area it wants.

Although Hezbollah suffered significant damage to its leadership and military facilities due to this large-scale Israeli airstrike, its combatants’ capabilities are still considerable. all.

Israel’s decision to define the ground war in Lebanon as a limited war is also intended to avoid repeating the mistakes of the 1981 and 2006 wars. However, when Israel launched the last two wars in Lebanon, it declared a short-term, limited war. However, when the goal was not achieved, the war escalated and fell into a quagmire.

In order to ensure the safe return of northern residents, which is Netanyahu’s political goal in this war against Hezbollah, a buffer zone must be created in southern Lebanon. In fact, Israel waged the Lebanon War in 1981 and occupied southern Lebanon until 2000, effectively creating a buffer zone. Israeli troops were stationed there, but eventually had to withdraw.

Roger Shanahan, who was a liaison officer with the Australian military during Israel’s Lebanon War in 2006, said Netanyahu’s political goal of the safe return of northerners cannot necessarily be achieved through military means, adding that Hezbollah is using a lot of rocket fire to prevent the northerners from returning. He pointed out that it was not necessary.

Senior Reporter Jeong Eui-gil Egil@hani.co.kr

Source: Korean