As the snow has started melting in the central Himalayas, the political temperature in Himachal Pradesh has also started rising this summer. It started with the surprise victory of Harsh Mahajan, a close aide of former Congress chief minister Virbhadra Singh, for the BJP in the Rajya Sabha seat.
He had won the seat on February 27 last year with the help of disgruntled Congress MLAs. This development has given a boost to the Lok Sabha election campaign in the only Congress-ruled state in North India. Although the initial rebellion against Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu was resolved by senior Congress leaders and Sukhu remained in power, this shameful incident has shaken the morale of the party.
Himachal Pradesh sends four MPs to the Lok Sabha. The Congress is fighting to retain the Mandi seat, where state unit chief and Virbhadra’s nemesis Pratibha Singh won a by-election in November 2021. Otherwise, the BJP swept the Congress in the state in 2014 and 2019, winning seats 4-0. Riding heavily on a Hindutva campaign, the BJP increased its vote share by 16 per cent to 70 per cent in 2019.
However, in the December 2022 assembly elections, the Congress, under the leadership of former Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, faced the challenges of the BJP better and won 40 seats in the 68-member assembly. The Congress fought unitedly and countered the Hindu nationalist agenda of the BJP by highlighting the shortcomings of the government.
By-elections are to be held on June 1 for four Lok Sabha seats (Shimla, Hamirpur, Kangra and Mandi) as well as six assembly seats in Himachal. All these six seats were won by Congress candidates who cross-voted against the party candidate Abhishek Manu Singhvi and in favour of Mahajan in the Rajya Sabha elections. He had put the Sukhu government in danger. Hence, he was suspended.
Later he joined the BJP. In the 68-member assembly, the BJP has 25 MLAs and three independents. It is believed that to save his seat, Sukhu will need to win all four Lok Sabha seats as well as at least three out of six assembly seats. Victory in the by-election will give him a majority in the assembly while victory in the parliamentary seats will increase his stature in the eyes of the top command. At present, Sukhu is working hard to repeat the 2022 contest and is trying to stick to local issues to prevent the impact of ‘achievements’ like the construction of Ram temple being promoted by his rival camp.
The BJP is not taking things lightly either – it announced its candidates on March 24, thus giving them ample time to campaign. As former chief minister Thakur explains, all four BJP candidates will bank on the popularity and charisma of Prime Minister Modi. “Prime Minister Modi is a big factor. He will form the next government,” claims Thakur. The BJP’s target is to win 400 seats, four of which will come from Himachal.
“This will have a big impact on voters,” he says, referring to Prime Minister Modi’s image as a global leader. He lists the BJP’s “achievements” – abolition of Article 370, construction of the Ram temple, reservation for women in Parliament and the Indian economy becoming the fifth largest in the world. Can the faction-ridden Himachal Congress face this challenge?
Chief Minister Sukhu is confident she can handle the situation. “We implemented the old pension scheme, increased revenue by plugging leakages, reduced red tape, the government is committed to working for the people,” he says. He accuses the BJP-led central government of providing inadequate funds for rehabilitation work after last year’s floods. Another reason for anger against the BJP is the defeat in the Rajya Sabha elections in February. “They stole the Rajya Sabha seat from me. I am asking people to vote for all four Lok Sabha seats,” Sukhu tells India Today.
Agniveer and Apple
Congress is fighting against BJP by making Agniveer Yojana an issue in Kangra and Hamirpur. Both these areas are known for high recruitment of youth in the army. There are about 1.25 lakh ex-servicemen in Himachal and 1,15,000 are serving in the army. The rule of keeping only 25 percent of Agniveers in the army is unpopular.
On the other hand, fruit farmers in the apple belt of Shimla, Mandi and Kangra are angry over the fall in prices due to cheap imports from America. They are also upset with the Central Government for not imposing higher anti-dumping duty on them. Chief Minister Sukhu says, “I stand with the apple growers. During the floods, I ensured that road connectivity was restored so that they could send their produce to the market.” Congress has fielded former Commerce Minister Anand Sharma from Kangra, about whom the BJP is saying that Sharma, as a Union Minister, had expressed a commitment to keep the rate of duty at 50 percent in the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The BJP has fielded Rajiv Bharadwaj against Sharma. He has replaced outgoing MP Krishan Kapoor, who declined to contest after being diagnosed with cancer. The curtain has thus fallen on the influence of his mentor and former chief minister Shanta Kumar in Himachal. Union minister Anurag Thakur is contesting again from Hamirpur while former BJP state chief Suresh Kashyap has got a ticket from Shimla. The Congress has fielded its Kasauli MLA Vinod Sultanpuri against Kashyap. Former MLA Satpal Raizada is its candidate from Hamirpur.
Anurag Thakur, a four-time MP from Hamirpur, also has to ensure the victory of Congress turncoats Indra Dutt Lakhanpal (Barsar), Devender Bhutto (Kutehr), Rajendra Rana (Sujanpur) and Chaitanya Sharma (Gagret), who are contesting on BJP tickets in the by-elections. All these assembly constituencies fall in his parliamentary constituency. Two Congress turncoats who cross-voted in February are Ravi Thakur and Sudhir Sharma, who are contesting from Lahaul Spiti (Mandi Lok Sabha seat) and Dharamshala (Kangra).
Though Hamirpur is a saffron bastion, the BJP lost 12 of the 17 assembly seats here in the 2022 elections due to factionalism. This time it hopes that the national agenda and Anurag’s activism will help it retain the seats. Chief Minister Sukhu’s assembly seat (Nadaun) is also part of Hamirpur. The Congress is telling voters that the BJP is engaged in a conspiracy to remove a local person from the post of Chief Minister. In Shimla, Congress candidate Sultanpuri is trying his best to make it a Congress bastion, as it was during his father’s time. In 2022, the Congress won 13 of the 17 assembly seats here.
‘Queen’ vs. ‘King’
The BJP is benefiting from the decision to field actress Kangana Ranaut in Mandi. With her aggressive nature and star power, she is able to connect with voters instantly. Her fluency in the Mandiali dialect is also helping her. In fact, in Mandi and Kullu districts, she has the personality of a local girl who has made a name for herself in Bollywood.
The BJP has roped in Jai Ram Thakur to handle its campaign. “We lost the 2021 bypolls by a very narrow margin. There is no sympathy wave now (after the death of Congress chief minister Virbhadra Singh),” the former chief minister claims. Thakur has influence in Mandi, which won half of the BJP’s assembly seats in 2022. The stakes are high for him as he knows his chances of becoming chief minister again depend on a favourable result.
Kangana is pitted against Vikramaditya Singh, son of Pratibha Singh and former chief minister Virbhadra Singh, and this is his family turf. Vikramaditya, the younger ‘raja’ of Rampur Bushahr, is running a low-profile campaign. In February, he too joined the rebels and quit the Sukhu cabinet, saying the government had done nothing to preserve his father’s legacy. He was later persuaded to stay. Ironically, while Sukhu is seeking votes for Congress candidates saying the BJP is trying to destabilise his government, Vikramaditya is asking voters to save his family’s legacy.
Among these battles, the biggest battle for the Congress is that its government completes its term. It will consider it good if it gets even a few Lok Sabha seats.