The Secretary General of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, has been killed in an Israeli airstrike. Nasrallah had switched to “his master’s side” and joined his “great and immortal martyrs,” the pro-Iranian Shiite militia said on Telegram. Hezbollah initially did not comment on a possible successor.

Hours earlier, the Israeli military announced the death of the 64-year-old Hezbollah leader. “Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world,” the military said. The important Hezbollah commander for the south of the country, Ali Karaki, and other militia commanders were also killed in an attack on Friday in a Beirut suburb.

After Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death, shots were heard in the air in the Lebanese capital Beirut. According to eyewitnesses, numerous shots were fired, particularly in the suburbs of Beirut that were controlled by Hezbollah. Shiite militia supporters drove through the city in cars and scooters with Hezbollah flags.

Nasrallah’s death is a major blow to Hezbollah

The death of Nasrallah, who led the organization for 30 years, was Israel’s worst blow to Hezbollah and one of its greatest enemies in decades. It is currently difficult to foresee what consequences this will have for the conflict with Israel, for the Middle East region and for Lebanon itself.

According to its own statement, Israel’s military attacked Hezbollah’s headquarters, which was said to have been located under residential buildings. After the attack in the suburb of Haret Hreik near the airport, thick clouds of smoke could be seen, followed by large piles of rubble. According to state media, several buildings were completely destroyed. According to the Ministry of Health, at least six people were killed and 91 injured.

Israel knew Nasrallah’s whereabouts for months

The assessment that Nasrallah is dead was based on a combination of various intelligence information, the military said. The army also had information that Nasrallah and other Hezbollah commanders had met at the headquarters.

The New York Times reported, citing three Israeli defense sources, that Nasrallah’s whereabouts had been known for months.

Israel warns enemies

Israel’s army spokesman Daniel Hagari said Nasrallah’s death made the world safer. At the same time, he warned: “It’s not over yet, Hezbollah still has more options.”

«The message to all those who threaten the citizens of the State of Israel is simple: we will know how to reach them. In the north, in the south and in more distant places,” said Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi. The attack on Friday, which the army gave the name “New Order,” had been prepared for a long time. “It came at the right time and in a very sharp way,” Halevi continued. The military is now on high alert.

“Hezbollah’s weakened and battered state provides a short window of opportunity to further weaken its strategic capabilities,” said Orna Mizrachi of the Israel Institute for National Security (INSS). Because of the civilian casualties in Lebanon, there will soon be pressure on Israel to stop the operations. Israel must develop an exit strategy together with the USA to end the conflict in the north, said the researcher at the Israeli think tank.

Head of Hezbollah for 30 years

Nasrallah had been at the head of the Shiite militia since 1992. He was one of Israel’s most difficult opponents. He coordinated closely with Iran and its Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah’s main backer. He has transformed the militia into a much more powerful and dangerous organization than it was during his predecessor’s time.

Nasrallah, 64 years old and father of four children, received his religious education in the two most important centers of Shiite Muslims: the Iraqi pilgrimage city of Najaf and the Iranian city of Qom. In 1982 he joined the newly founded “Party of God” in Lebanon.

He was elected as successor after the death of leader Abbas al-Mussawi, whom Israel killed in 1992. He considered Hezbollah’s great triumph to be the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon in 2000 and what they described as a “divine victory” after the end of the war in 2006.

With Nasrallah’s death, the conflict with Israel, which seemed to follow certain rules for almost a year, could spiral even further out of control.

Further course of the conflict uncertain

However, it is not clear whether Iran, as the militia’s main supporter, will come to its aid in the event of war. The new Iranian government under President Massoud Peseschkian is struggling with a severe economic crisis and is striving for a rapprochement with the West. Although Iran’s military leadership announced retaliation after the killing of Hamas foreign chief Ismail Haniya at the end of July, this has so far failed to materialize.

Hezbollah has been hit hard by massive attacks by Israel in recent weeks. Their leadership, means of communication, missile and weapons arsenals, infrastructure and probably also their fighting morale have been significantly weakened.

Several scenarios would now be possible: Hezbollah could give up the fight for the time being, end the shelling of Israel, agree to a ceasefire and – as a UN resolution stipulates – withdraw around 30 kilometers from the border. Israel would have achieved a war goal if more than 60,000 people could return to their homes and apartments in the north of the country.

Or Hezbollah is expanding its attacks against Israel, attacking Israeli cities and military targets with the most modern rockets, causing many deaths and property damage. This could threaten further escalation, an Israeli ground offensive and possibly a regional conflagration. Or Hezbollah continues the shelling of Israel at a low level.

It is also questionable to what extent Iran supports Hezbollah and how other non-state allies of Iran, such as the Houthi militia in Yemen and militias in Iraq, behave.

In Lebanon, too, it is unclear in what form the militarily, politically and socially very powerful organization will continue to exist.