A team from Imperial College London has concluded that the probability of a typhoon of the 10th class occurring has increased by 26% due to global warming. The team pointed out that the maximum wind speed has increased by 7.5%. The team warned that “if humans continue to warm the climate, typhoons will continue to intensify.”

The team used data on sea surface temperature, air temperature, and humidity to predict the maximum wind speed of typhoons that will affect the Kyushu region, and compared the results with a scenario in which global temperatures were 1.3 degrees lower than they are now without global warming.

The analysis showed that without global warming, typhoons of the same magnitude as Typhoon Faxai would occur an average of 4.5 times per decade. If man-made global warming caused by the burning of oil and coal were assumed, the number of typhoons of the same magnitude would increase to 5.7 times, a 26% increase in the probability of occurrence.

“Although Japan has traditionally adapted to strong typhoons, this analysis should be seen as a warning,” the team said.