The Asian online retailers Temu and Shein are keeping Germany’s parcel industry on track for growth. In this year’s Christmas business, domestic logistics companies are expecting 435 million shipments, 3.6 percent more than the year before, as the Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics (BPEX) announced in Berlin. It’s about shipments that companies send to consumers – especially goods that were ordered online.

If you include shipments sent from companies to companies and from consumers to consumers, the number is forecast to be 735 million, around 1.4 percent more than before. Due to the weak economy, the market segment for company-to-company shipments has shrunk. The shipments also include courier and express deliveries, but mostly normal parcel deliveries.

Black Friday and Christmas Eve as growth drivers

The Christmas business in the parcel industry covers the months of November and December. For logistics companies, it is the most important time of the year because it is when a particularly large number of people buy gifts and go on shopping sprees for discount campaigns such as Black Friday. The volume of parcels that are delivered in vans to the front door or to pick-up stations is correspondingly large.

The parcel companies already know relatively precisely about the shipment volumes because they have received feedback from their retail customers. According to the association, during the most intensive time of the year, companies rely on up to 18,000 additional workers and use up to 10,000 additional vehicles.

Tailwind from Temu and Shein

During the Corona years, the parcel industry, which also includes courier services and express services, grew significantly. In 2022 the situation normalized somewhat and the volume of parcels fell. In 2023, the volume of shipments from companies to consumers grew again slightly by around one percent, and the growth is now increasing. According to the association’s assessment, this is also due to the increased demand for products that are sold on the Asian trading platforms Shein and Temu and then end up in packages with German customers.

“Although the Christmas business is characterized by difficult economic conditions, we look to the coming weeks with cautious optimism,” says BPEX Chairman Marten Bosselmann. The market analysis figures showed that the companies in the industry remained robust even in difficult times.