As her three-year term comes to an end, Sandra Oudkirk, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, offered some parting advice: Don’t panic about China’s bellicose rhetoric and actions, but don’t become numb to the risks either.
During her tenure as Washington’s de facto ambassador to Taiwan, the democratic island has become a focal point in a standoff between the United States and China, which claims Taiwan as its territory that must be reunited, even by force if leaders in Beijing deem it necessary.
There have also been occasional tensions in the debate among Taiwanese and American politicians, officials and experts over what combination of strategies would minimize the risk of war — what arms purchases, what conciliatory or tough rhetoric to adopt toward Beijing, what actions to take with other democracies.
Sun Xiaoya, who will step down early next month, said Taiwan and its partners need to find a stable path that avoids excessive panic or complacency.
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“We are often asked how dangerous Taiwan is, you know, some people think Taiwan is the most dangerous place in the world,” she said, referring to discussions of an imminent crisis or war. “Sometimes, it’s hard to explain it in a few words,” she said.
But she also mentioned China: “When a government, a country, a leader tells you what they are thinking, tells you what they are planning, you should listen to what they are saying.”
After decades of Beijing’s tantrums, many Taiwanese have grown indifferent. Chinese military exercises and airspace incursions have become more frequent but still rarely cause public alarm.Most TaiwaneseThey also said they believed the United States would intervene if China really threatened to invade.
In 2023, on the second day of China's military exercise around Taiwan, a Taiwanese fighter jet landed at the Hsinchu Air Force Base.
In 2023, on the second day of China’s military exercise around Taiwan, a Taiwanese fighter jet landed at the Hsinchu Air Force Base. Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
But not all Taiwanese politicians and voters think so, and some are skeptical about the United States’ determination and intentions.
The United States has legally made a commitment to help Taiwan defend itself.promiseif China attempts to take over Taiwan by force, the United States can choose to send troops. Some U.S.Military generals and experts say an invasion of Taiwan is increasingly likely：A few years ago, some peoplethinkChina could take military action in 2027. But Biden administration officialsexpressthey believe that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has no clear deadline.
Even so, before and during Ms. Sun’s tenure as director of the American Institute in Taiwan, China increased pressure on the island, which is just over 100 kilometers from its coast.
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1992She was first sent as a consular officer to Taiwan, which had just emerged from decades of martial law and when China was far less wealthy and militarily powerful than it is now, and later to Dublin, Istanbul and Beijing.
In mid-2021, Sun Xiaoya becameDe facto U.S. ambassador to TaiwanA few months later, Russia invaded Ukraine, deepening Taiwanese concerns that China might risk a similar armed takeover. In August 2022, Chinese troops staged aThe largest exercise everBeijing said it was a response to then-House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.revenge.
In 2022, cross-strait tensions escalated sharply after Pelosi, then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan.
In 2022, cross-strait tensions escalated sharply after Pelosi, then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan. Taiwan Presidential Office, via Reuters
The victory of Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing dislikes, in Taiwan’s presidential election this year prompted a new round of Chinese military exercises near the island and strong condemnation from Beijing after he took office in May. Chinese officials openly expressed strong skepticism when Lai said at the time that he wanted to maintain the status quo in Taiwan — self-rule but without a formal declaration of independence.
“His May 20 speech was a complete and naked confession of Taiwan independence,” said He Lei, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, in an interview during a recent meeting in Singapore. “He is going further and further down the road of Taiwan independence, and now he is going deeper and deeper, which will only bring greater risks to the Taiwan Strait.”
In response to China’s warnings and growing power, Taiwan and Washington have stepped up cooperation, with the U.S. Mission on a hillside northeast of Taipei a concrete and steel-clad symbol of that relationship.
The institution’s official name is the American Institute in Taiwan, which makes it sound more like a language school than a diplomatic mission. The vague name is a concession to the fact that Washington ended formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 after the United States recognized Beijing.
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For years, the American Institute in Taiwan has maintained a thin official presence in a cramped office in downtown Taipei, keeping a low profile and generally not even flying a national flag in decades past.
That is no longer the case. The new IATA building, completed in 2019, is a sprawling facility with 585 employees, up from 488 in 2019, according to the agency’s press office.Now, the American flag flies over the building.
The gate of the American Institute in Taiwan.
The gate of the American Institute in Taiwan. Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
“These are all examples of progress in U.S.-Taiwan relations,” Brent Christensen, who served as director of the American Institute in Taiwan before Ms. Sun and now teaches at Brigham Young University, said in an interview.
“The U.S.-Taiwan relationship is largely guided by precedent,” said Li Yingjie. “But the Trump administration doesn’t care much about precedent, so this is a useful moment to push past some of the constraints we’ve imposed on ourselves.”
Sun Xiaoya said that during her three years as director, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a particular turning point for Taiwan and also a turning point for strengthening relations with the United States.
“Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a Russian invasion has obviously been in the news a lot here, especially in 2022,” she said. “It’s really sparked a lot of public concern and debate about ‘what does this mean for Taiwan?’ ”
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Taiwan’s former president Tsai Ing-wen has proposed changing compulsory military service for men from 1 to 5 in 2022.Four monthsTaiwan has also been ordering moreMobile missiles and other flexible weapons that could deter Chinese attack.
“The level of strategic integration between Taiwan and the United States should be the highest in history since the severance of diplomatic ties,” said Kuo Yu-jen, a political science professor at National Sun Yat-sen University in southern Taiwan.
Not all Taiwanese welcome the closer relationship. Ms. Sun’s three years as AIT director have seen a resurgence of what locals call “U.S. suspicion,” especially among voters who feel that Taiwan and Washington have needlessly irritated Beijing.
A replica of the Statue of Liberty in Taipei in January.
A replica of the Statue of Liberty in Taipei in January. Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
Sun Xiaoya said that while distrust of the United States’ intentions or ability to support Taiwan partly reflects China’s information operations to amplify doubts, it is also a reflection of the normal ups and downs of disagreements within a democratic country.
She is often asked whether the upcoming election in the United States will change the United States’ support for Taiwan, a question she has always maintained a consistent diplomatic attitude.
“Unlike almost any other foreign policy or domestic policy issue in the United States, there is broad bipartisan consensus on U.S. policy toward Taiwan,” she told reporters at a farewell news conference on Friday. “So I don’t think an election will necessarily change that.”