PTT Prism analyst Asawin Panterdthai said benchmark crude oil prices – ICE Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – fell $6 per barrel in September. PTT Prism is a unit under PTT that includes experts in PTT’s energy businesses.

Mr. Asawin said that the lower-than-expected growth of China’s economy, the world’s largest crude oil importer, is one of the main factors slowing down the rise of global oil prices.

According to Mr. Asawin, China’s economic growth is estimated to reach 4.7% in the third quarter of 2024, lower than the average estimate for the whole year of 5%. China’s economic recession is mainly due to the impact of the real estate sector.

Another factor that could affect global oil prices is US policy after the general election scheduled for November 5, which is believed to have the ability to prevent oil prices from rising.

Although the United States is a major oil producer, it also needs to import a significant amount of oil to fuel its economy.

Mr. Asawin said the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to continue cutting interest rates this year to boost the economy, eventually leading to higher US oil demand in the winter.

Temperatures in the US this winter are likely to be lower than the annual average due to the effects of La Niña, also known as ocean cooling.

On the global crude oil supply side, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producing countries agreed in June 2024 to maintain an oil production cut of 1.65 million barrels/day until the end of 2025.

According to a Thai official in charge of energy issues who requested anonymity, with oil prices not increasing, even in winter, Thailand’s Oil Fuel Fund will be under less pressure to subsidize oil and gas prices. . Besides, lower oil prices allow more taxes to be collected from oil consumers.