Car trade: 47 percent fewer private BEV orders in the first half of the year
Gloomy expectations for the year as a whole – High prices and leasing rates hamper BEV business with commercial customers

Bonn/Berlin (ots)

Orders for purely battery-electric vehicles (BEV) from private customers fell by 47% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year. This is the result of a survey by the ZDK, which was carried out among 348 car dealerships from June 14 to July 2, 2024. For plug-in hybrids (PHEV), the decline was minus 37%, while demand for diesel and gasoline vehicles increased by 24%. The situation is somewhat friendlier for commercial customers: Here, orders for BEVs and plug-in hybrids fell by 41% and 33%, but orders for diesel and gasoline vehicles rose by 20%.

Expected order situation looks bleak

Things look bleak when looking at the expected order situation for the whole of 2024 compared to the previous year. 91% of respondents rate the order situation for BEVs from private customers as “very bad” (63%) or “bad” (28%). The result for plug-in hybrids is not much better, with a total of 79% negative feedback (44% “very bad” and 35% “bad” expectations).

There is also little reason for optimism regarding the expected business with commercial customers: 84% expect the outlook for BEVs to be “very poor” (50%) or “poor” (34%). For plug-in hybrids, the negative values ​​(43% “very poor” and 30% “poor”) are cumulatively 73%.

Confidence in orders for petrol and diesel vehicles

At least cautious confidence is evident in the expectation of new vehicle orders with conventional drive technology: In the private customer segment, 7% of the car dealerships surveyed expect “very good” and 32% “good” order development for diesel and petrol vehicles compared to the previous year. At least 38% see a “neutral” situation and thus a development similar to the previous year. For business with commercial and fleet customers, these values ​​(5% “very good”, 31% “good” and 36% “neutral”) are at a similar level.

High price and high leasing rates hinder BEV business with commercial customers

When asked what car dealerships see as the biggest obstacles to BEVs and PHEVs being used as fleet or company vehicles, 27%, the majority of respondents, answered “high purchase price/high leasing rate”. For 23%, this includes “uncertain resale value/low residual value” and for 16%, “no charging option at home”. Other reasons given were: “too few fast charging options” (13%), “no charging option at work” and “reservations of company car drivers about battery technology” (9% each). The point “high repair costs and shortages of spare parts” (3%) is negligible.

When asked whether the current company car taxation has a sales-promoting effect on business with commercial and fleet customers, respondents are divided: 57% agree with this statement, while 43% disagree.

CO2 price to be used to promote alternative drive systems

With 70% approval, the majority of respondents are in favor of using the CO2 price as a subsidy for the ramp-up of e-fuels or other synthetic fuels (38%) and for the ramp-up of e-mobility (32%). The suggested answers “reduction in social security contributions” (19%), “restructuring of the state budget” and “climate money for all citizens” (6% each) are met with little enthusiasm.

ZDK President Arne Joswig comments on the survey as follows: “The significant decline in orders for BEV and PHEV in the first half of the year makes it clear how difficult the situation is in car dealerships. And the expectations for the year as a whole also give little hope that anything will change. The high prices and leasing rates are seen as a major obstacle to the ramp-up of e-mobility, combined with expected low residual values ​​and difficult-to-calculate resale values. We therefore expect manufacturers to now create market incentives through low prices and low leasing rates. We need further significant progress on the subject of charging infrastructure. And we assume that new vehicles with combustion engines can still be registered after 2035 if they are powered by climate-neutral e-fuels. The newly elected President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, recently sent out this signal. Consistent political action is now required. There must not be just one path to climate neutrality in road traffic.”