Refer Report

The support for US Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris among blacks, Latinos, and young people is weaker than when Joe Biden was elected four years ago. This is because men of all races support former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, more than they did four years ago. However, some analysis suggests that Harris may be able to offset the shortfall because she is receiving more support from white women than Biden did four years ago.

The Wall Street JournalOn the 3rd (local time), it reported that “Harris’s recent approval rating among black voters is 10 percentage points lower than Biden’s in 2020. The approval ratings among Latino voters and voters under 30 are also 6 percentage points and 12 percentage points lower than four years ago.” In the 2020 presidential election, Biden won Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin by a narrow margin of 14,577, 11,779, and 26,820 votes, respectively. He was able to win thanks to the 37 electoral votes he brought in from these three states. Some point out that restoring the ‘winning coalition’ is an urgent task as this year’s presidential election is also close.

This phenomenon is due to men’s preference for Trump. Harris is receiving less support from male voters of all races than Biden did in 2020. Citing its own poll of 2,500 registered voters conducted in July and August, the newspaper explained, “Trump received support from 20% of black men in the last two polls, up from 12% in 2014.” “Trump’s support among Latino men is 47%, almost the same as Harris’s 48%.”

There is a way. Harris is getting more support from white voters, especially white female voters. A new ‘winning coalition’ of Harris’s own could be formed. The newspaper predicted, “A black female president who relies more on white voters and less on minority voters than a white male President Biden could become.”

Even a small increase in support from white voters could offset a big loss from minority voters, since 70% of the electorate is white. A poll conducted last month by the election analysis firm Cook Political Report found that Harris had higher support among white men and women in seven battleground states than Biden did in 2020.

Reporter Kim Won-cheol wonchul@hani.co.kr

Source: Korean