President Biden’s top climate diplomat, John Podesta, travels to Beijing on Tuesday where he is expected to press Chinese leaders to adopt more ambitious plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change.
The three-day visit, confirmed by the State Department, is widely seen as one of the Biden administration’s last chances to pressure China to take more aggressive action on global warming before the November election.
“The U.S. and China are at an impasse on climate cooperation,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Center at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “We don’t have much time to really change this situation.”
Podesta plans to hold talks with Liu Zhenmin, China’s special envoy for climate change, and ministers responsible for coal development and renewable energy production. He is also expected to meet with Jie Zhenhua, a retired top climate envoy who is still pursuing a diplomatic career.
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Climate experts say if Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet during the Group of 20 summit in November, they hope the trip will help get climate issues on the agenda.
John Kerry this yearResigns as chief U.S. climate negotiatorThis is Podesta’s first visit to China since taking over the post.
The G20 meeting will be held in Brazil on November 18 and 19, about two weeks after the U.S. presidential election. That same week, climate diplomats will gather in Baku, Azerbaijan, for annual UN-led negotiations on global warming.
Two main issues will be discussed at the Baku meeting: money and new climate goals. The U.S.-China relationship is likely to be crucial to both.
By early next year, the 2015 Paris Agreement will have195 countriesA new set of climate targets must be announced detailing how far their countries will achieve emissions cuts by 2035.
China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, accounting for nearly a third of global emissions. About 90% of the increase in climate pollution since the signing of the Paris Agreement has been caused by China.
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That means the next target China adopts will largely determine whether the planet can stay within relatively safe levels of warming, or whether average global temperatures breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit agreed in the Paris agreement to rise above pre-industrial levels. The planet is already 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times.
As part of the Paris Agreement, China pledged that its emissions would peak by 2030 and then eventually decline. China’s emissions are probably alreadyPeakA key question going forward is how long China’s emissions should be allowed to remain at their peak before falling. Another is how deep the cuts should be.
“China will meet its original Paris targets ahead of schedule,” said Joanna Lewis, a China expert at Georgetown University. As a result, she said, “it is very important for China to present a more ambitious set of targets this time around.”
To help keep warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, China must cut economy-wide emissions by at least 30 percent from current levels by 2035, the nonprofit Asia Society found.
Republicans have been critical of the Biden administration’s efforts to work with China. Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he was skeptical that Podesta’s visit would be fruitful. But he also said he believed China had to act.
“The Biden-Harris administration should not trade away our interests simply to get President Xi to abide by an agreement they have signed,” McCaul said in an emailed statement, adding that “President Xi cares about himself and his own power, not the rest of the world or our climate.”
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Other agenda items for the meeting in Beijing are likely to include the energy transition from coal and strengthening China’s plans to cut potent non-carbon greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide.
The biggest task at the upcoming UN climate talks is to agree on a new financial target to help poor countries deal with climate change. The new target would replace the current commitment by rich countries to provide $100 billion in climate finance to developing countries each year. The United States wants to ensure that any deal reached includes countries such as China, which the United Nations considers “developing countries,” as donors.