Citing the warning of Mr. Marc Ayoub, a Lebanese energy policy researcher and a member at the Tahir Institute for Middle East Policy, Sputnik radio said in case Israel decides to attack energy infrastructure Iran in response to the country’s missile attack earlier this week on Tel Aviv, damage to Iran’s crude oil facilities will certainly have consequences and put pressure on the global energy market.
The researcher noted that over the past few days, oil prices have increased and could reach $80/barrel even before Israel’s attack.
Mr. Ayoub’s comments came at a time when Israel was considering a response to Iran’s retaliatory missile attack. Iranian officials revealed that one of the options is to attack Iran’s oil infrastructure and are discussing options with their US allies. However, in a statement on October 4, US President Joe Biden said Israel had not yet made any final decision on how to respond, but the leader suggested the country should exercise restraint in attacking the facility. Iranian oil.
“This could be similar to what happened when Iraq attacked Kuwait in 1990 depending on the scale of the attack. The risk of conflict could cause oil prices to rise and exceed the $100 mark. Expected “We will lose 1.5 million barrels of oil per day,” analyst Marc explained.
Speaking about Iran’s possible response, Mr. Marc said that the country could use nuclear weapons and block the Strait of Hormuz – an important shipping route with about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passing through each year. day.
“Using the Strait of Hormuz would be another escalation, especially for some Gulf states, as about 27% of the world’s oil passes through here, including Iran’s shipments to China . This certainly puts more pressure on supply and the market,” the analyst pointed out.
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, Iran and Libya are both members of OPEC. Iran, despite being under US sanctions, produced about 4 million barrels of oil per day in 2023, while Libya produced about 1.3 million barrels of oil per day in 2023. ANZ analysts said Iran’s oil production rose to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day in August 2024.
The October 2 meeting of top ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) – one day after Iran attacked Israel – decided to keep output policy unchanged. oil. The group is expected to increase production by 180,000 barrels/day per month from December 2024.
Immediately after the October 1 attack, North Sea Brent oil price 34 US cents (0.46%) to 73.90 USD/barrel. The price of US light sweet crude oil (WTI) increased 27 US cents (0.39%) to 70.10 USD/barrel.
Source: vietnamese